RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
V1dar Gamingloss 1:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Passion UAloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V1dar Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Difference · 2 games
Luna
dizzying · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Difference · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Difference · 2 games
Passion UA
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 9 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
Jakiro
Fernans · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 7 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
384 picks · 363 bans
Hoodwink
371 picks · 409 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 535 bans
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
Phoenix
296 picks · 516 bans
Sven
296 picks · 308 bans
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 602 bans
Weaver
286 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:28
V1dar Gaming 41%Passion UA 59%
The model gave 59% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverdizzying
Lunayowaai
TimbersawEgor
Primal Beastniche
Pangolierkur0patbI4
EnigmaBatyuk
SnapfireGroom
Enchantressflacko
57% · 110 games
MarciFernans
Game 2prediction missed39:22
V1dar Gaming 43%Passion UA 57%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by V1dar Gaming in 47:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdizzying
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Queen of PainEgor
Invokerniche
Timbersawkur0patbI4
VisageBatyuk
BatriderGroom
Enchantressflacko
36% · 107 games
TuskFernans
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2