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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
68%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 22 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 21 game
71%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 16 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
53%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 14 games
64%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 11 games
55%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 9 games
44%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 7 games
29%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 7 games
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
352 picks · 180 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
287 picks · 105 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 421 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
268 picks · 536 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 365 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
239 picks · 337 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
233 picks · 244 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
V-Gaming 52%Creepwave 48%
The model gave 52% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Creepwave in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
51% · 176 games44% · 70 games
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinahAze
53% · 164 games51% · 172 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Venomancer
Venomancerlaise
41% · 37 games50% · 232 games
MarsATF
Mars
Monkey King
Monkey KingArrOw
55% · 163 games52% · 99 games
SnapfireChuvash
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
52% · 65 games43% · 32 games
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct34:19
V-Gaming 56%Creepwave 44%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
47% · 106 games45% · 141 game
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinylaise
46% · 118 games47% · 140 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerhAze
56% · 71 game49% · 120 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonArrOw
54% · 82 games50% · 36 games
EarthshakerChuvash
Earthshaker
Abaddon
AbaddonMalady
51% · 116 games57% · 56 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Game 3prediction missed30:43
V-Gaming 53%Creepwave 47%
The model gave 53% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Creepwave in 53:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
46% · 121 game45% · 194 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyhAze
49% · 155 games52% · 90 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
48% · 176 games52% · 261 game
MarsATF
Mars
Mirana
MiranaArrOw
54% · 154 games48% · 110 games
Dark WillowChuvash
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
59% · 77 games47% · 28 games
SilencerFishman
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 53%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3