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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Family Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
ArrOw · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 2 games
100%

Family Team

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
453 picks · 1007 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
420 picks · 613 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 639 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 669 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 292 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 377 bans
60%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 176 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
260 picks · 168 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
V-Gaming 56%Family Team 44%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:14.
Game 2prediction missed33:14
V-Gaming 56%Family Team 44%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Family Team in 44:06.
Game 3prediction correct37:19
V-Gaming 56%Family Team 44%
The model gave 56% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 32:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 56%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3