Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 3:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:0
HellRaisersloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 28 games
Linasignature
hAze · 19 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 16 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 13 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
376 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 124 bans
Lina
266 picks · 472 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 523 bans
Luna
252 picks · 349 bans
Mars
245 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 300 bans
Dragon Knight
236 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:11
V-Gaming 68%HellRaisers 32%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:20.
Game 2prediction correct38:15
V-Gaming 68%HellRaisers 32%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:18.
Game 3prediction correct22:11
V-Gaming 68%HellRaisers 32%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 32:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 68%
Series resultV-Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3