Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Vice Esportswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vice Esports
Tidehunter
Enryu · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Dark Seer
Enryu · 1 game
Doom
Bob · 1 game
Ember Spirit
Bob · 1 game
Faceless Void
Palos · 1 game
Kunkka
Bob · 1 game
Legion Commander
Enryu · 1 game
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 2 games
Riki
Ghost · 2 games
Ember Spirit
AlaCrity · 1 game
Enchantress
343 · 1 game
Juggernaut
Ghost · 1 game
Queen of Pain
AlaCrity · 1 game
Storm Spirit
AlaCrity · 1 game
Templar Assassin
AlaCrity · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Void Spirit
7 picks · 8 bans
Mars
6 picks · 15 bans
Brewmaster
5 picks · 2 bans
Earth Spirit
5 picks · 3 bans
Ogre Magi
5 picks · 0 bans
Tiny
5 picks · 3 bans
Bloodseeker
4 picks · 1 bans
Ember Spirit
4 picks · 4 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Vice Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:6
Vice Esports 52%Nigma Galaxy SEA 48%
The model gave 52% on Vice Esports — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerPalos
Faceless VoidGhost
Ember SpiritBob
LeshracAlaCrity
MarsEnryu
Enchantress343
Game 2prediction correct34:30
Vice Esports 51%Nigma Galaxy SEA 49%
The model gave 51% on Vice Esports — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPalos
Phantom AssassinGhost
LeshracBob
Void SpiritAlaCrity
SlardarEnryu
Enchantress343
Model check result
Model favoriteVice Esports · 52%
Series resultVice Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2