Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dandelion Esport Clubloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Victoria · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 10 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 9 games
Snapfire
Victoria · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
Tiny
poyoyo · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 7 games
Dandelion Esport Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
494 picks · 430 bans
Mars
456 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 535 bans
Bane
406 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 591 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
Chaos Knight
332 picks · 643 bans
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Dandelion Esport Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:33
Vici Gaming 55%Dandelion Esport Club 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 40:35.
Game 2prediction correct34:14
Vici Gaming 55%Dandelion Esport Club 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:33.
Game 3prediction correct25:5
Vici Gaming 55%Dandelion Esport Club 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 18:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 55%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3