?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 18 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 13 games
46%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 30 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
621 picks · 598 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 396 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 461 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 192 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
409 picks · 263 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
377 picks · 855 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:31
Vici Gaming 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
49% · 289 games55% · 160 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptershiro
49% · 254 games55% · 180 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Razor
RazorXm
49% · 156 games46% · 84 games
KezNiku
Kez
Io
IoXinQ
43% · 37 games54% · 181 game
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Disruptor
Disruptory`
48% · 301 game49% · 432 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct25:7
Vici Gaming 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
51% · 491 game44% · 289 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey Kingshiro
53% · 261 game48% · 288 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
45% · 558 games45% · 331 game
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXinQ
67% · 128 games50% · 330 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Dazzle
Dazzley`
50% · 184 games47% · 384 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Vici Gaming 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
45% · 495 games50% · 367 games
Beastmastergotthejuice
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
40% · 315 games55% · 345 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderFaith_bian
54% · 283 games57% · 470 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
45% · 147 games56% · 129 games
Keeper of the LightDaze
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
45% · 116 games52% · 45 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 61%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3