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The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 24 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
48%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 19 games
74%

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 9 games
78%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 8 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 8 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
304 picks · 179 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
290 picks · 403 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
277 picks · 567 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 368 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 254 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
243 picks · 89 bans
45%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
242 picks · 412 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
226 picks · 257 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
Vici Gaming 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypoyoyo
44% · 102 games61% · 69 games
RazorgpK~
Razor
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
45% · 151 game57% · 65 games
BristlebackNightfall
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusELeVeN
47% · 54 games54% · 102 games
EarthshakerDM
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
44% · 127 games41% · 17 games
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerDy
51% · 19 games51% · 200 games
Phoenix1ls
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct20:31
Vici Gaming 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
60% · 43 games43% · 129 games
MedusaNightfall
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
51% · 169 games50% · 250 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Magnus
MagnusELeVeN
54% · 76 games52% · 69 games
EarthshakerDM
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
49% · 140 games50% · 94 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDy
47% · 124 games51% · 10 games
Silencer1ls
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct15:36
Vici Gaming 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepoyoyo
52% · 117 games47% · 159 games
LunaNightfall
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritOri
53% · 121 game43% · 162 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterELeVeN
52% · 129 games43% · 62 games
UnderlordDM
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
51% · 117 games56% · 61 game
BaneSave-
Bane
Monkey King
Monkey KingDy
54% · 124 games51% · 164 games
Elder Titan1ls
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3