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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 22 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 15 games
87%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
54%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 978 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 198 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 590 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 362 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
292 picks · 638 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 223 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
278 picks · 475 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 34%
Hero pool strength61% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:29
ViKin.gg 73%EXTREMUM 27%
The model gave 73% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerShad
45% · 19 games57% · 113 games
JuggernautNefrit
Juggernaut
Viper
ViperBOOM
44% · 50 games58% · 98 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Puck
PuckKheZu
44% · 237 games50% · 48 games
EnigmaBlizzy
Enigma
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAramis
42% · 121 game65% · 40 games
Ancient ApparitionG
Ancient Apparition
Undying
UndyingSeleri
43% · 31 game54% · 159 games
LionChuvash
Lion
Game 2prediction correct20:10
ViKin.gg 78%EXTREMUM 22%
The model gave 78% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBOOM
57% · 14 games52% · 35 games
Vipermellojul
Viper
Slardar
SlardarShad
59% · 29 games46% · 32 games
DoomBlizzy
Doom
Tidehunter
TidehunterKheZu
53% · 77 games49% · 58 games
UrsaNefrit
Ursa
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
52% · 64 games43% · 70 games
TinyChuvash
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAramis
49% · 60 games48% · 49 games
Witch DoctorG
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct59:21
ViKin.gg 77%EXTREMUM 23%
The model gave 77% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBOOM
54% · 30 games53% · 53 games
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Axe
AxeKheZu
48% · 49 games37% · 29 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
55% · 47 games47% · 96 games
MarsBlizzy
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressAramis
58% · 103 games49% · 35 games
Witch DoctorG
Witch Doctor
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSeleri
58% · 69 games40% · 85 games
TinyChuvash
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 89%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3