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ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 15 games
87%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 14 games
79%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 14 games
79%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 22 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 15 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 974 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 198 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 172 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 222 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
285 picks · 635 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
276 picks · 468 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total82% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
ViKin.gg 68%Hellbear Smashers 32%
The model gave 68% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeShad
53% · 23 games53% · 148 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Tiny
TinyBOOM
42% · 72 games55% · 31 game
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsKheZu
48% · 130 games56% · 91 game
Centaur WarrunnerMISERY
Centaur Warrunner
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSeleri
44% · 42 games47% · 7 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAramis
49% · 39 games47% · 29 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct19:6
ViKin.gg 69%Hellbear Smashers 31%
The model gave 69% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 22:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageShad
47% · 22 games48% · 84 games
MorphlingStormstormer
Morphling
Axe
AxeKheZu
47% · 28 games51% · 32 games
Drow RangerAce
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBOOM
53% · 82 games67% · 5 games
NecrophosMISERY
Necrophos
Mirana
MiranaAramis
44% · 44 games60% · 23 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSeleri
53% · 48 games48% · 80 games
ClockwerkGilgir
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 82%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2