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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Aramis · 20 games
75%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 16 games
81%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 17 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
92%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 13 games
85%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
54%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 12 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 209 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 978 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 603 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 356 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 182 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 191 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 79%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:29
ViKin.gg 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBOOM
54% · 92 games47% · 54 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Broodmother
BroodmotherKheZu
41% · 31 game50% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Riki
RikiShad
45% · 41 game48% · 152 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
50% · 148 games45% · 73 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAramis
56% · 154 games55% · 106 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed28:23
ViKin.gg 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBOOM
55% · 23 games53% · 28 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaKheZu
47% · 54 games45% · 180 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Axe
AxeShad
40% · 57 games45% · 38 games
Sand KingCollapse
Sand King
Lion
LionAramis
51% · 184 games61% · 56 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Undying
UndyingSeleri
55% · 45 games54% · 61 game
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed24:29
ViKin.gg 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBOOM
47% · 31 game40% · 23 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Razor
RazorShad
54% · 20 games62% · 48 games
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterKheZu
46% · 86 games51% · 48 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
52% · 59 games44% · 136 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Tiny
TinyAramis
49% · 86 games61% · 27 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3