Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 10 games
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 9 games
Chensignature
Fng · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
267 picks · 360 bans
Dark Willow
236 picks · 108 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 475 bans
Muerta
208 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
201 picks · 292 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 388 bans
Vengeful Spirit
184 picks · 153 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:43
Virtus.pro 80%Alliance 20%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:23.
Game 2prediction correct39:24
Virtus.pro 80%Alliance 20%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 80%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2