Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 24 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Batridersignature
sayuw · 15 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
Kunkkasignature
Squad1x · 15 games
Mirana
Fng · 15 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
478 picks · 770 bans
Mars
442 picks · 705 bans
Techies
436 picks · 347 bans
Batrider
434 picks · 920 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 573 bans
Crystal Maiden
419 picks · 189 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:29
Virtus.pro 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:12:34.
Game 2prediction missed30:32
Virtus.pro 66%Aurora Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:09:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2