Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
sayuw · 26 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 22 games
Mirana
Fng · 18 games
Batridersignature
sayuw · 17 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
Tusk
sayuw · 16 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
497 picks · 783 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 953 bans
Mars
454 picks · 715 bans
Techies
450 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 595 bans
Crystal Maiden
441 picks · 192 bans
Rubick
426 picks · 204 bans
Lion
413 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:29
Virtus.pro 65%Blacklist International 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 35:53.
Game 2prediction missed27:37
Virtus.pro 65%Blacklist International 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 52:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2