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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 20 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 18 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
467 picks · 241 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
459 picks · 446 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 948 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
323 picks · 369 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 148 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 222 bans
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
287 picks · 467 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
286 picks · 638 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total79% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:14
Virtus.pro 68%HULIGANI 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
53% · 234 games45% · 112 games
Svenchempik
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
45% · 243 games51% · 59 games
Huskarerase
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
55% · 240 games44% · 380 games
PangolierBb3px
Pangolier
Chen
ChenFly
61% · 125 games50% · 107 games
Naga SirenRESPECT
Naga Siren
Techies
TechiesAntares
59% · 11 games43% · 195 games
Hoodwinkslimeyao
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct26:23
Virtus.pro 67%HULIGANI 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
54% · 200 games42% · 351 game
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAbed
56% · 209 games44% · 43 games
Faceless Voidchempik
Faceless Void
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
58% · 272 games41% · 209 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Techies
TechiesAntares
61% · 17 games46% · 218 games
SnapfireRESPECT
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
54% · 212 games49% · 89 games
Slarkslimeyao
Slark
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2