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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 16 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 351 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
369 picks · 595 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 551 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
356 picks · 286 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 337 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
336 picks · 698 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
324 picks · 194 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
317 picks · 334 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
Virtus.pro 66%Night Pulse 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
52% · 98 games46% · 75 games
Anti-MageKami
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
51% · 228 games49% · 233 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
52% · 208 games51% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
51% · 153 games52% · 356 games
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
45% · 154 games
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Virtus.pro 67%Night Pulse 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
49% · 210 games55% · 221 game
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawSquad1x
51% · 249 games44% · 294 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Mars
MarsNoticed
47% · 209 games46% · 292 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Leshrac
LeshracFng
58% · 112 games49% · 158 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
52% · 185 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2