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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 14 games
79%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 7 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 213 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 634 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 978 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 347 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
360 picks · 201 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 224 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 380 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
276 picks · 208 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:25
Virtus.pro 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
55% · 69 games45% · 50 games
SpectreiLTW
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusgpK~
53% · 37 games55% · 70 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Mars
MarsDM
50% · 162 games49% · 67 games
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
54% · 69 games43% · 73 games
RubickGH
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition1ls
50% · 93 games47% · 170 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Game 2prediction missed10:29
Virtus.pro 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
52% · 48 games54% · 53 games
RazorMiracle-
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaDM
54% · 26 games54% · 46 games
SpectreiLTW
Spectre
Mars
MarsNightfall
46% · 140 games50% · 92 games
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaSave-
53% · 98 games52% · 60 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Snapfire
Snapfire1ls
43% · 95 games49% · 156 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2