ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 30 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 26 games
Warlock
Fly · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 24 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 21 game
Chenoften banned
Fly · 18 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
OG
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 29 games
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 28 games
Marssignature
Force · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Natsumi · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
666 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
578 picks · 596 bans
Warlock
475 picks · 322 bans
Tusk
474 picks · 416 bans
Shadow Demon
413 picks · 1086 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 693 bans
Shadow Fiend
390 picks · 1001 bans
Mars
383 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total50% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:23
Virtus.pro 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaTimado
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Shadow FiendAbed
Ember SpiritYopaj
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
BatriderForce
TinyHellscream
DazzleSkem
JakiroFly
Shadow ShamanTims
Game 2prediction correct16:39
Virtus.pro 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaTimado
BeastmasterNatsumi
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Storm SpiritYopaj
Shadow FiendAbed
Dark SeerForce
JakiroFly
Keeper of the LightSkem
TinyHellscream
Nyx AssassinTims
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2