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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 8 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 8 games
100%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%

Team Aster

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 21 game
71%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
298 picks · 179 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
288 picks · 397 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
276 picks · 554 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 372 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 256 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
243 picks · 88 bans
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
238 picks · 400 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
221 picks · 252 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Virtus.pro 56%Team Aster 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
49% · 130 games48% · 68 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
49% · 135 games46% · 95 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Underlord
UnderlordDM
46% · 20 games59% · 53 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Io
Io1ls
52% · 67 games49% · 73 games
WeaverBoBoKa
Weaver
Bane
BaneSave-
59% · 73 games43% · 136 games
PangolierLaNm
Pangolier
Game 2prediction correct20:1
Virtus.pro 57%Team Aster 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 20:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
49% · 146 games51% · 60 games
Anti-MageMonet
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
43% · 144 games53% · 113 games
Ember SpiritWhite丶Album
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
54% · 75 games60% · 62 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Bane
BaneSave-
60% · 44 games48% · 123 games
Elder TitanLaNm
Elder Titan
Io
Io1ls
43% · 110 games45% · 161 game
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2