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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 3 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Save- · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 3 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
Nightfall · 2 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 2 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 2 games
100%

Team Spirit

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yatoro · 3 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 3 games
67%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yatoro · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Miposhka · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
241 picks · 503 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
219 picks · 273 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
203 picks · 375 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
192 picks · 154 bans
49%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
165 picks · 278 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
157 picks · 510 bans
57%
Wraith King
Wraith King
150 picks · 193 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:31
Virtus.pro 60%Team Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:01:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
48% · 27 games49% · 8 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightNightfall
little data54% · 28 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
51% · 14 games50% · 12 games
BloodseekerCollapse
Bloodseeker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
57% · 3 games56% · 24 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden1ls
46% · 39 games46% · 11 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Virtus.pro 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
50% · 20 games47% · 18 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Monkey King
Monkey KinggpK~
59% · 34 games55% · 81 game
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsDM
46% · 76 games44% · 5 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
63% · 4 games55% · 44 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden1ls
43% · 41 game41% · 27 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct24:5
Virtus.pro 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
47% · 60 games56% · 18 games
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyergpK~
40% · 27 games46% · 37 games
Nature's ProphetCollapse
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
62% · 41 game54% · 71 game
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickSave-
38% · 84 games46% · 83 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Oracle
Oracle1ls
49% · 51 game64% · 54 games
Death ProphetMiposhka
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3