1XPLORE Asia #2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Army Geniuses
Pugnasignature
db- · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Yowe · 9 games
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Varizh · 8 games
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 7 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
Rubick
484 picks · 291 bans
Batrider
431 picks · 895 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 809 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
Doom
382 picks · 859 bans
Beastmaster
355 picks · 924 bans
Pugna
354 picks · 416 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:39
Vision 15%Army Geniuses 85%
The model gave 85% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 21:18.
Game 2prediction correct10:41
Vision 15%Army Geniuses 85%
The model gave 85% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 21:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 85%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2