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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Visionwin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vision

No games played over 6 months.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
RR · 16 games
56%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
740 picks · 628 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
523 picks · 1289 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
522 picks · 1017 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
454 picks · 1152 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
448 picks · 928 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
428 picks · 224 bans
59%
Enchantress
Enchantress
424 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
Vision 23%Myth Avenue Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 53:31.
Game 2prediction correct48:39
Vision 23%Myth Avenue Gaming 77%
The model gave 77% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 54:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 77%
Series resultVision 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2