?
arrow_backBack to match
WINLINE Star Series #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
VooDooSh Clubwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stray Clubloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VooDooSh Club

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
VooDooSh · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
Cake · 3 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Cake · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Limitless · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
chambi · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
VooDooSh · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razor
Shigetsu · 2 games
100%

Stray Club

Mirana
Mirana
Goodoq · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Goodoq · 3 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Vovapain · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Stray · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Stray · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Stray · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Vovapain · 2 games
0%
Marci
Marci
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 284 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 133 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
307 picks · 125 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 457 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 287 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 417 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
273 picks · 232 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% VooDooSh Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% VooDooSh Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:41
VooDooSh Club 59%Stray Club 41%
The model gave 59% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by Stray Club in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerLimitless
50% · 113 gameslittle data
Chaos Knightzvёzd
Chaos Knight
Omniknight
OmniknightShigetsu
49% · 10 games49% · 34 games
SniperStray
Sniper
Magnus
Magnuschambi
57% · 6 games46% · 121 game
MiranaVovapain
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernCake
54% · 64 games56% · 55 games
EnigmaDkFogas
Enigma
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiVooDooSh
43% · 23 games50% · 6 games
Vengeful SpiritGoodoq
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct0:0
VooDooSh Club 60%Stray Club 40%
The model gave 60% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
50% · 32 games54% · 110 games
Terrorbladezvёzd
Terrorblade
Rubick
Rubickchambi
56% · 118 games50% · 229 games
Centaur WarrunnerDkFogas
Centaur Warrunner
Kunkka
KunkkaLimitless
49% · 51 game48% · 19 games
ZeusStray
Zeus
Dazzle
DazzleVooDooSh
46% · 136 games41% · 81 game
WeaverVovapain
Weaver
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCake
57% · 318 games46% · 216 games
MarsGoodoq
Mars
Game 3prediction correct0:0
VooDooSh Club 55%Stray Club 45%
The model gave 55% on VooDooSh Club — the game was taken by VooDooSh Club in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaShigetsu
47% · 148 games54% · 66 games
Svenzvёzd
Sven
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchambi
50% · 223 games53% · 310 games
WindrangerStray
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerLimitless
47% · 84 games53% · 189 games
TimbersawDkFogas
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickCake
44% · 162 games53% · 23 games
MagnusGoodoq
Magnus
Batrider
Batridergood_mma
48% · 239 games52% · 268 games
WarlockVovapain
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteVooDooSh Club · 66%
Series resultVooDooSh Club 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3