PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 11 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 39 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 34 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 32 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 31 game
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 848 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 369 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 642 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 586 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 774 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 582 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 551 bans
Mars
341 picks · 482 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:28
VP.Prodigy 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangercutie
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
Puckxn丶e
InvokerRain
ViperBb3px
Ringmasterraregods
SnapfireRESPECT
BaneJANTER
Tuskslimeyao
Game 2prediction correct
VP.Prodigy 21%HULIGANI 79%
The model gave 79% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 79%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2