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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 22 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 16 games
56%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
47%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 14 games
79%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 23 games
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 16 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
675 picks · 848 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 583 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 428 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
479 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1133 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 687 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
398 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 619 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:45
VP.Prodigy 35%Power Rangers 65%
The model gave 65% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingcutie
54% · 188 games54% · 162 games
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Puck
PuckSerenada
48% · 388 games47% · 148 games
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
54% · 221 game52% · 198 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerraregods
47% · 82 games39% · 37 games
VenomancerHduo
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickJANTER
53% · 72 games47% · 406 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct21:31
VP.Prodigy 37%Power Rangers 63%
The model gave 63% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertacutie
50% · 80 games50% · 225 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
54% · 88 games54% · 147 games
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSerenada
41% · 13 games46% · 34 games
Alchemistnesfeer
Alchemist
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageraregods
47% · 59 games49% · 48 games
VenomancerHduo
Venomancer
Tusk
TuskJANTER
49% · 232 games58% · 18 games
IoImmersion
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 72%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2