?
arrow_backBack to match
Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Water Rune Enjoyers

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
59%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 16 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
53%
Visage
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%

Ancient Tribe

Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Limmp · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
s4 · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Handsken · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Handsken · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Peksu · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
388 picks · 594 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
363 picks · 267 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
323 picks · 545 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 762 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
238 picks · 359 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
232 picks · 335 bans
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
217 picks · 411 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
210 picks · 736 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
Water Rune Enjoyers 39%Ancient Tribe 61%
The model gave 61% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 22:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanBliNcc
51% · 70 games55% · 95 games
LunaStoneBank
Luna
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPalantimos
48% · 57 games46% · 219 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskStojkov
52% · 150 games56% · 114 games
VisageDavai
Visage
Tiny
Tinyy0nd
45% · 447 games51% · 76 games
Primal BeastLeBronDota
Primal Beast
Lich
LichMary_y
41% · 77 games55% · 297 games
MarciAlexxo
Marci
Game 2prediction correct33:46
Water Rune Enjoyers 41%Ancient Tribe 59%
The model gave 59% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 50:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperStojkov
50% · 28 games50% · 133 games
Monkey KingStoneBank
Monkey King
Lycan
LycanBliNcc
50% · 73 games51% · 107 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Ursa
UrsaPalantimos
51% · 111 games52% · 96 games
LinaMirage
Lina
Hoodwink
Hoodwinky0nd
45% · 160 games51% · 95 games
MarciAlexxo
Marci
Disruptor
DisruptorMary_y
52% · 109 games49% · 50 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 67%
Series resultAncient Tribe 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2