European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyerswin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 15 games
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 13 games
Linasignature
Stojkov · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
Palantimos · 11 games
Level UP
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
373 picks · 351 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 316 bans
Marci
268 picks · 504 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 573 bans
Undying
250 picks · 461 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 602 bans
Snapfire
221 picks · 127 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Water Rune Enjoyers 45%Level UP 55%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction missed
Water Rune Enjoyers 45%Level UP 55%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers.
Game 3prediction missed
Water Rune Enjoyers 45%Level UP 55%
The model gave 55% on Level UP — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 55%
Series resultWater Rune Enjoyers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3