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Last-Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Wayfarerswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monaspaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wayfarers

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
xsvampire · 7 games
86%
Lina
Linasignature
Squad1x · 6 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
0%

Monaspa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 364 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
467 picks · 669 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
315 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
288 picks · 454 bans
48%
Enigma
Enigma
269 picks · 846 bans
58%
Puck
Puck
268 picks · 629 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 367 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
258 picks · 131 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Wayfarers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wayfarers 42%Monaspa 58%
The model gave 58% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Game 2prediction missed
Wayfarers 42%Monaspa 58%
The model gave 58% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Wayfarers.
Game 3prediction missed
Wayfarers 42%Monaspa 58%
The model gave 58% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Wayfarers.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 58%
Series resultWayfarers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3