DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
55BUGPIGPOLEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 15 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 11 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 9 games
5BUGPIGPOLE
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 793 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 332 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 713 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
Phantom Assassin
413 picks · 743 bans
Bristleback
400 picks · 900 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 1066 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Wildcard Gaming 71%5BUGPIGPOLE 29%
The model gave 71% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 32:33.
Game 2prediction correct31:18
Wildcard Gaming 71%5BUGPIGPOLE 29%
The model gave 71% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 45:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 71%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2