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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Alexxo · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Boris · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
The Warden · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
50%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 29 games
62%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 11 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Speeed · 7 games
71%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 6 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 343 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 327 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
261 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
254 picks · 192 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
199 picks · 143 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
177 picks · 105 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
176 picks · 496 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
171 picks · 456 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:16
Wildcard Gaming 37%5RATFORCESTAFF 63%
The model gave 63% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 50:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArk
37% · 87 games56% · 178 games
Bloodseekerdnm
Bloodseeker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSunlight
48% · 161 game56% · 177 games
VisageSpeeed
Visage
Pangolier
PangolierBabitich
50% · 186 games53% · 190 games
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickFrancisLee
44% · 103 games55% · 173 games
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Skywrath Mage
Snapfire
SnapfireSammyboy
47% · 181 game
Game 2prediction correct24:33
Wildcard Gaming 40%5RATFORCESTAFF 60%
The model gave 60% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 47:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArk
52% · 70 games49% · 182 games
Linadnm
Lina
Tusk
TuskBabitich
50% · 185 games48% · 221 game
Death ProphetSpeeed
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickFrancisLee
47% · 190 games51% · 165 games
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Treant Protector
Magnus
MagnusSunlight
48% · 30 games53% · 101 game
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Skywrath Mage
Mirana
MiranaSammyboy
51% · 194 games
Game 3prediction missed47:24
Wildcard Gaming 40%5RATFORCESTAFF 60%
The model gave 60% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordArk
38% · 25 games50% · 122 games
Nature's Prophetdnm
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBabitich
44% · 167 games57% · 246 games
BeastmasterSpeeed
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireSunlight
52% · 208 games52% · 261 game
ClockwerkCTOMAHEH1
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressSammyboy
52% · 155 games43% · 114 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskFrancisLee
53% · 188 games
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 66%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3