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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
11%
Techies
Techiessignature
FrancisLee · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 6 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 4 games
75%

B8 Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
13%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 6 games
33%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
600 picks · 630 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
473 picks · 255 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 841 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
381 picks · 388 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
372 picks · 744 bans
48%
Doom
Doom
352 picks · 769 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
345 picks · 845 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 761 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
Wildcard Gaming 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSammyboy
46% · 22 games53% · 44 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
48% · 247 games61% · 19 games
Night StalkerStoneBank
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsSunlight
47% · 87 games53% · 248 games
Primal BeastDendi
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixTaiga
44% · 77 games52% · 226 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Marci
MarciHusky
51% · 157 games47% · 53 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Game 2prediction missed4:27
Wildcard Gaming 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSammyboy
41% · 34 games37% · 44 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
53% · 189 games53% · 340 games
Primal BeastDendi
Primal Beast
Underlord
UnderlordSunlight
55% · 48 games49% · 114 games
Legion CommanderStoneBank
Legion Commander
Rubick
RubickTaiga
54% · 323 games47% · 95 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Silencer
SilencerHusky
49% · 126 games52% · 127 games
IoKidaro
Io
Game 3prediction correct29:19
Wildcard Gaming 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSammyboy
49% · 106 games49% · 97 games
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSunlight
48% · 118 games62% · 24 games
Witch DoctorDendi
Witch Doctor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
49% · 210 games53% · 70 games
PudgeStoneBank
Pudge
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTaiga
44% · 8 games55% · 103 games
Nature's ProphetKidaro
Nature's Prophet
Chen
ChenHusky
45% · 83 games49% · 231 game
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 80%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3