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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Babitich · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 7 games
43%

CDUB Esports

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 7 games
71%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Double King · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mark · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Sanctified · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 487 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
568 picks · 615 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1096 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 502 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1220 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
467 picks · 1039 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
461 picks · 673 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 913 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
Wildcard Gaming 53%CDUB Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSammyboy
54% · 107 games46% · 146 games
BloodseekerDouble King
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckRCY
50% · 185 games42% · 208 games
Ember SpiritMark
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageFrancisLee
47% · 167 games58% · 107 games
Spirit BreakerislA
Spirit Breaker
Techies
TechiesSunlight
51% · 263 games53% · 85 games
Shadow DemonSanctified
Shadow Demon
50% · 176 games
SnapfireDuster
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Wildcard Gaming 52%CDUB Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSammyboy
55% · 282 games43% · 162 games
TerrorbladeDouble King
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
55% · 200 games49% · 230 games
UndyingislA
Undying
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFrancisLee
53% · 119 games46% · 60 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
Techies
TechiesSunlight
56% · 265 games45% · 379 games
RubickSanctified
Rubick
44% · 35 games
Ancient ApparitionDuster
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct25:32
Wildcard Gaming 50%CDUB Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSammyboy
55% · 206 games50% · 274 games
TerrorbladeDouble King
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
61% · 267 games57% · 259 games
TimbersawislA
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickFrancisLee
47% · 464 games37% · 99 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
Undying
UndyingSunlight
51% · 283 games45% · 537 games
SnapfireSanctified
Snapfire
41% · 51 game
Ancient ApparitionDuster
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 54%
Series resultCDUB Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3