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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
goonsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Babitich · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%

goons

Rubick
Rubick
Giant · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
AfrOmoush · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Boris · 3 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 536 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 515 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
557 picks · 1249 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
528 picks · 583 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 939 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1075 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
455 picks · 653 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% goons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:3
Wildcard Gaming 54%goons 46%
The model gave 54% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSammyboy
54% · 115 games52% · 172 games
MorphlingBoris
Morphling
Puck
PuckBabitich
56% · 144 games50% · 90 games
UnderlordLil_Nick
Underlord
Techies
TechiesFrancisLee
49% · 186 games46% · 212 games
EnchantressGiant
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorSunlight
51% · 274 games42% · 245 games
UndyingJubei
Undying
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Wildcard Gaming 53%goons 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by goons in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderBabitich
50% · 193 games51% · 222 games
MorphlingBoris
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSammyboy
46% · 107 games53% · 170 games
TimbersawLil_Nick
Timbersaw
Techies
TechiesFrancisLee
48% · 145 games53% · 25 games
LionGiant
Lion
Undying
UndyingSunlight
42% · 212 games55% · 240 games
MiranaJubei
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct34:20
Wildcard Gaming 55%goons 45%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSammyboy
49% · 67 games50% · 85 games
MedusaBoris
Medusa
Lina
LinaBabitich
57% · 94 games49% · 72 games
MarsLil_Nick
Mars
Techies
TechiesSunlight
52% · 136 games56% · 83 games
Shadow DemonGiant
Shadow Demon
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFrancisLee
41% · 102 games50% · 159 games
UndyingJubei
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 58%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3