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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Kalmychataloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 25 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 22 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 7 games
71%
Mars
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Mirage · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 554 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 417 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 386 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 511 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 197 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
315 picks · 710 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
308 picks · 571 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 436 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 76%Kalmychata 24%
The model gave 76% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 76%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1