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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 26 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
RCY · 22 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 21 game
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 9 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
bashka · 9 games
22%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 591 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 386 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 413 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 211 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
334 picks · 720 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 828 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 636 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:34
Wildcard Gaming 54%Nemiga Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYamSun
49% · 115 games43% · 191 game
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
61% · 79 games49% · 214 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
55% · 274 games52% · 55 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Tinker
TinkerSpeeed
45% · 73 games45% · 51 game
Snapfirexsvampire
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBignum
53% · 17 games50% · 47 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct40:15
Wildcard Gaming 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYamSun
46% · 76 games53% · 195 games
Templar Assassinbashka
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckRCY
48% · 300 games47% · 303 games
DawnbreakerCovisnine
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusFayde
49% · 194 games57% · 175 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
47% · 252 games50% · 310 games
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
50% · 249 games52% · 88 games
Baneasdekor_r
Bane
Game 3prediction missed8:46
Wildcard Gaming 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYamSun
49% · 112 games58% · 43 games
Troll Warlordbashka
Troll Warlord
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFayde
48% · 229 games46% · 275 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
53% · 299 games51% · 108 games
MarsCovisnine
Mars
Bane
BaneSpeeed
53% · 68 games48% · 245 games
Batriderasdekor_r
Batrider
Marci
MarciBignum
48% · 205 games51% · 242 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3