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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 14 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
69%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
67%

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ZfreeK · 9 games
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Costabile · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
719 picks · 570 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
497 picks · 1023 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
494 picks · 655 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
480 picks · 808 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 426 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 162 bans
48%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
302 picks · 581 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total75% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:15
Wildcard Gaming 25%nouns 75%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:04.
Game 2prediction correct36:13
Wildcard Gaming 25%nouns 75%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 42:33.
Game 3prediction correct37:22
Wildcard Gaming 25%nouns 75%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:52.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 75%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3