Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfiresignature
Sammyboy · 11 games
Rubick
FrancisLee · 10 games
Tiny
Babitich · 9 games
Tusk
Sammyboy · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
FrancisLee · 6 games
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 5 games
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 12 games
Undyingsignature
Husky · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Lelis · 6 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Gunnar · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
800 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
571 picks · 401 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
462 picks · 746 bans
Snapfire
418 picks · 297 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 849 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 868 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total74% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:15
Wildcard Gaming 35%nouns 65%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenYawaR
LeshracGunnar
PangolierLil_Nick
Drow RangerYamSun
MiranaMSS
Witch DoctorMoo
GyrocopterSammyboy
TinyLelis
48% · 178 games
UndyingHusky
Game 2prediction correct14:22
Wildcard Gaming 33%nouns 67%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYawaR
LeshracGunnar
SnapfireLil_Nick
AbaddonYamSun
MagnusMSS
Witch DoctorMoo
DisruptorSammyboy
TinyLelis
59% · 83 games
IoHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 74%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2