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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 25 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 23 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 21 game
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 19 games
84%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 18 games
50%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 21 game
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 17 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 14 games
36%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 636 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
488 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 415 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 853 bans
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
403 picks · 454 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
388 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 337 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 34%
Hero pool strength57% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Wildcard Gaming 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYamSun
49% · 408 games48% · 253 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
59% · 278 games46% · 206 games
EarthshakerStormstormer
Earthshaker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFayde
48% · 275 games44% · 228 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenSpeeed
59% · 132 games46% · 441 game
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskBignum
51% · 304 games50% · 269 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct29:6
Wildcard Gaming 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYamSun
47% · 148 games51% · 75 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainRCY
41% · 150 games54% · 173 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Medusa
MedusaFayde
46% · 213 games48% · 158 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenSpeeed
62% · 142 games47% · 191 game
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Bane
BaneBignum
61% · 41 game47% · 97 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 53%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2