European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
Pucksignature
RCY · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
Chensignature
Speeed · 19 games
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
Runa Team
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 17 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
518 picks · 550 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
323 picks · 708 bans
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 558 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 65%Runa Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Game 2prediction missed
Wildcard Gaming 65%Runa Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 3prediction missed
Wildcard Gaming 65%Runa Team 35%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 65%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3