DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBthe bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Chensignature
Speeed · 23 games
Tusk
Bignum · 23 games
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
Bane
Bignum · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 18 games
Doomsignature
YamSun · 15 games
the bug
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 2 games
Clockwerk
empyrean5 · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
310 picks · 773 bans
Disruptor
307 picks · 282 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 719 bans
Pugna
265 picks · 297 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 249 bans
Marci
258 picks · 743 bans
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Wildcard Gaming 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYamSun
UrsaBoris
Sand KingRCY
Ember SpiritiAnnihilate
Queen of PainFayde
Warlockempyrean5
ChenSpeeed
Hoodwinkbgod
TuskBignum
Game 2prediction correct27:4
Wildcard Gaming 63%the bug 37%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 21:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
MeepoBoris
Anti-MageYamSun
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
Void SpiritRCY
Warlockempyrean5
EnchantressSpeeed
Pudgebgod
HoodwinkBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 73%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2