DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CriTicS Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winners
No games played over 6 months.
CriTicS Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
388 picks · 491 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 294 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 385 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
315 picks · 723 bans
Lion
313 picks · 151 bans
Gyrocopter
291 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Winners
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Winners
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:22
Winners 54%CriTicS Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Winners — the game was taken by Winners in 37:26.
Game 2prediction correct46:20
Winners 54%CriTicS Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Winners — the game was taken by Winners in 39:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinners · 54%
Series resultWinners 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2