Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CHILLAXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Marssignature
Noticed · 18 games
Jakiro
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Weaversignature
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Bane
forcemajor · 11 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 11 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Noticed · 9 games
Ursasignature
Daxak · 9 games
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 271 bans
Mars
378 picks · 519 bans
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 501 bans
Weaver
352 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
288 picks · 455 bans
Kunkka
285 picks · 505 bans
Grimstroke
264 picks · 185 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Winstrike Team 54%CHILLAX 46%
The model gave 54% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 25:55.
Game 2prediction correct39:15
Winstrike Team 54%CHILLAX 46%
The model gave 54% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 34:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 54%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2