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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 10 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Delight · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 2 games
50%

ASAKURA

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 12 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
young G · 11 games
55%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 797 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 327 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 696 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
422 picks · 761 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 395 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
405 picks · 889 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
394 picks · 1077 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 535 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winter Bear 48%ASAKURA 52%
The model gave 52% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Game 2prediction missed
Winter Bear 48%ASAKURA 52%
The model gave 52% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 52%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2