ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CriTicS Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
CriTicS Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
427 picks · 347 bans
Clockwerk
407 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 449 bans
Lion
358 picks · 190 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 579 bans
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 538 bans
Phoenix
334 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% CriTicS Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:8
Winter Bear 81%CriTicS Esports 19%
The model gave 81% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 22:59.
Game 2prediction correct37:9
Winter Bear 81%CriTicS Esports 19%
The model gave 81% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 20:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 81%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2