FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Clinkz
Delight · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
Muerta
Delight · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 10 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 7 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
372 picks · 337 bans
Puck
339 picks · 849 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 164 bans
Pugna
292 picks · 334 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 787 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
277 picks · 126 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:25
Winter Bear 39%Pipsqueak+4 61%
The model gave 61% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerPanda
Puckxn丶e
51% · 37 games
MorphlingNande
58% · 22 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
46% · 33 games
Shadow DemonKaori
47% · 34 games
EnchantressKidaro
Game 2prediction correct5:26
Winter Bear 38%Pipsqueak+4 62%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainPanda
GyrocopterNande
61% · 32 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
59% · 81 game
Monkey Kingxn丶e
48% · 79 games
BatriderKaori
53% · 49 games
WarlockKidaro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 70%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2