Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 18 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
523 picks · 448 bans
Mars
459 picks · 681 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 544 bans
Bane
405 picks · 285 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 596 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 562 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 628 bans
Puck
334 picks · 780 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength66% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:23
Wolf Team 11%Thunder Awaken 89%
The model gave 89% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:07.
Game 2prediction correct34:5
Wolf Team 11%Thunder Awaken 89%
The model gave 89% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 23:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 89%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2