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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
velheor · 21 game
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
59%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
65%
Zeus
Zeussignature
velheor · 17 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
56%

HF

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Limitless · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
hAze · 11 games
36%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 9 games
22%
Mirana
Mirana
SOhY · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenix
ArrOw · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
toshiyb · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
353 picks · 577 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 239 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
292 picks · 518 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 166 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 405 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
250 picks · 493 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 286 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
204 picks · 686 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% X3
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:26
X3 59%HF 41%
The model gave 59% on X3 — the game was taken by HF in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursanesfeer
48% · 90 games46% · 85 games
Lunaxannii
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
52% · 221 game50% · 93 games
LycanActor
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShergarat
50% · 209 games49% · 441 game
Tinytoshiyb
Tiny
Earthshaker
Earthshakeralone
53% · 83 games53% · 27 games
Techiesweebian
Techies
Enchantress
Enchantressdark
49% · 176 games51% · 133 games
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct41:26
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 55:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
54% · 102 games49% · 123 games
Lunaxannii
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
53% · 147 games50% · 193 games
Batridertoshiyb
Batrider
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magealone
44% · 64 games47% · 91 game
BroodmotherActor
Broodmother
Mars
MarsShergarat
52% · 195 games44% · 50 games
Techiesweebian
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendark
53% · 66 games49% · 117 games
Treant ProtectorSOhY
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct33:9
X3 58%HF 42%
The model gave 58% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingnesfeer
49% · 111 games57% · 67 games
Naga Sirenxannii
Naga Siren
Lycan
LycanShergarat
47% · 63 games41% · 225 games
Pangoliertoshiyb
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskNattyNarwhal
57% · 156 games54% · 110 games
TidehunterActor
Tidehunter
Snapfire
Snapfirealone
47% · 171 game35% · 33 games
Techiesweebian
Techies
Dazzle
Dazzledark
53% · 38 games54% · 104 games
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 64%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3