Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KCKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 8 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 7 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
Invokersignature
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Banesignature
smN · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Hellscream · 8 games
Sand Kingsignature
Corrupted · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Hellscream · 7 games
Treant Protector
smN · 7 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 6 games
Marssignature
Corrupted · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
453 picks · 280 bans
Mars
439 picks · 602 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 472 bans
Sand King
362 picks · 482 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 770 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 506 bans
Storm Spirit
316 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:53
X3 40%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 60%
The model gave 60% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNattyNarwhal
Wraith KingMunkushi~
Phantom Lancernesfeer
Sand KingCorrupted
Dragon KnightMastery
PugnasmN
Shadow Shamanvelheor
Skywrath MageHellscream
Ioantoha
Game 2prediction missed21:15
X3 40%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 60%
The model gave 60% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by X3 in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancernesfeer
KunkkaMunkushi~
Sand KingNattyNarwhal
PangolierCorrupted
BeastmasterMastery
Skywrath MageHellscream
Hoodwinkvelheor
PugnasmN
Baneantoha
Game 3prediction correct6:25
X3 38%KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 62%
The model gave 62% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 18:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
VenomancerCorrupted
Sand KingNattyNarwhal
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Dragon KnightMastery
PhoenixHellscream
Skywrath Magevelheor
BanesmN
Pugnaantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 69%
Series resultKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3