Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 23 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Tinysignature
velheor · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Zeussignature
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Shergarat · 16 games
Jakiro
dark · 16 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
397 picks · 597 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 265 bans
Undying
326 picks · 557 bans
Enigma
249 picks · 773 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 340 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 435 bans
Death Prophet
225 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
209 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% X3
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
X3 51%Monaspa 49%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by Monaspa in 33:56.
Game 2prediction missed21:41
X3 51%Monaspa 49%
The model gave 51% on X3 — the game was taken by Monaspa in 41:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 51%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2