Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Tiny
alone · 30 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
Hoodwink
alone · 24 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Linaoften banned
nesfeer · 18 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
634 picks · 414 bans
Tusk
557 picks · 531 bans
Tiny
541 picks · 433 bans
Treant Protector
443 picks · 524 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 203 bans
Clockwerk
325 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 489 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:1
X3 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 56:18.
Game 2prediction correct13:33
X3 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 24:54.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2